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Creators/Authors contains: "Marín, Julio C"

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  1. Abstract Studying convection, which is one of the least understood physical mechanisms in the tropical atmosphere, is very important for weather and climate predictions of extreme events such as storms, hurricanes, monsoons, floods and hail. Collecting more observations to do so is critical. It is also a challenge. The OTREC (Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection) field project took place in the summer of 2019. More than thirty scientists and twenty students from the US, Costa Rica, Colombia, México and UK were involved in collecting observations over the ocean (East Pacific and Caribbean) and land (Costa Rica, Colombia). We used the NSF NCAR Gulfstream V airplane to fly at 13 kilometers altitude sampling the tropical atmosphere under diverse weather conditions. The plane was flown in a ‘lawnmower’ pattern and every 10 minutes deployed dropsondes that measured temperature, wind, humidity and pressure from flight level to the ocean. Similarly, over the land we launched radiosondes, leveraged existing radars and surface meteorological networks across the region, some with co-located Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and rain sensors, and installed a new surface GPS meteorological network across Costa Rica, culminating in an impressive systematic data set that when assimilated into weather models immediately gave better forecasts. We are now closer than ever in understanding the environmental conditions necessary for convection as well as how convection influences extreme events. The OTREC data set continues to be studied by researchers all over the globe. This article aims to describe the lengthy process that precedes science breakthroughs. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 23, 2026
  2. Abstract Tornadoes in Chile seem to develop in what are called “high-shear, low-CAPE” (HSLC) environments. An analysis of convective parameters from the ERA5 reanalysis during 16 notable tornadoes in Chile showed that several increased markedly before the time of the reports. The significant tornado parameter (STP) was able to discriminate the timing and location of the tornadoes, even though it was not created with that goal. We established thresholds for the severe hazards in environments with reduced buoyancy (SHERBE) parameter (≥1) and the STP (≤−0.3) to further identify days favorable for tornado activity in Chile. The SHERBE and STP parameters were then used to conduct a climatological analysis from 1959 to 2021 of the seasonal, interannual, and latitudinal variations of the environments that might favor tornadoes. Both parameters were found to have a strong annual cycle. The largest magnitudes of STP were found to be generally confined to south-central Chile, in agreement with the (sparse) tornado record. The probability of a day with both SHERBE and STP values beyond their thresholds was greatest between May and August, which aligns with the months with the most tornado reports. The number of days with both SHERBE and STP beyond their respective thresholds was found to fluctuate interannually. This result warrants further study given the known interannual variability of synoptic and mesoscale weather in Chile. The results of this study extend our understanding of tornado environments in Chile and provide insight into their spatiotemporal variability. 
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